Crude Oil Price Fundamental Forecast:Bearish Q3 2019 Oil Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities Crude oil is under the cosh after China imposed a fresh round of tariffs on $75 billion of US goods, reigniting the long-running trade war between the world’s two largest economies. While the outlook for crude oil Continue Reading
US Dollar Vulnerable to Slowing Durable Goods Orders, 2Q GDP Revision
US Dollar Rate Talking Points The economic docket for the final week of August may produce headwinds for the Dollar as data prints coming out of the US are anticipated to show a slowing economy. Fundamental Forecast for US Dollar: Neutral The US Durable Goods Orders report is expected to Continue Reading
USD/CNH Above 7.0000: Trade Wars are Good, and Easy to Win
US-China Trade War Update – USD/CNH Above 7.0000 The US-China trade war took a turn for the worse last week when the Federal Reserve did not cut its main interest rate by 50-bps. In escalating the US-China trade war, the US president cultivated a situation where, out of concern about Continue Reading
Crude Oil Prices Exit Triangle to the Downside – Implications for USD/CAD
Crude Oil Prices Talking Points: Now that the crude oil symmetrical triangle is seeing prices break lower, pressure is building for a topside break in USDCAD. USD/CAD prices continue to linger near key resistance23.6% retracement from the September to December 2018 high/low range as well as the 38.2% retracement of Continue Reading
Gold Price Targets: XAU/USD Surges as China Raises the Stakes
Gold prices are trading into a critical long-term resistance threshold with news of retaliatory tariffs from China sparking a massive surge in prices. The advance is once again looking to challenge this key pivot zone and a breach / close above is needed to keep the long-bias viable. These are Continue Reading
US Dollar Primed for Weakness – When Will it Break? USD/CAD, GBP/USD
US Dollar, USD/CAD, GBP/USD Talking Points: The US Dollar has had a busy day being driven by a couple of different themes. The net result of this morning’s events has been a pretty clear indication that President Trump wants a weaker US Dollar as the Fed has continued to attempt Continue Reading
FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: July US Durable Goods Orders Report & EUR/USD Rate Forecast
US Durable Goods Orders Report Overview The preliminary March US Durable Goods Orders report is due on Monday, August 26 at 12:30 GMT and the data should help further stabilize the rebound in US growth expectations seen in recent days. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is looking for Q3’19 US Continue Reading
FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: Q2’19 US GDP Report & USD/JPY Rate Forecast
US GDP Report Overview The revised Q2’19 US GDP report is due on Thursday, August 29 at 12:30 GMT and the data should soothe concerns about an immediate slowdown in the US economy. The NY Fed Nowcast is looking for Q2’19 US GDP at 1.5%; consensus forecast per Bloomberg News Continue Reading
FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: July US Trade Balance & USD/CNH Rate Forecast
US Trade Balance Report Overview The revised July US advanced goods trade balance is due on Thursday, August 29 at 12:30 GMT and the data will only likely enflame the US-China trade war. Meanwhile, the August Chinese Manufacturing PMI is set to remain below 50, a sign that the sector Continue Reading
Top 5 Events – FX Week Ahead: August Eurozone Inflation Report & EUR/JPY Rate Forecast
Eurozone Inflation Report Overview: The August Eurozone inflation report (consumer price index) is due out on Friday, August 30 at 09:00 GMT, and the data will further underscore the ECB’s rationale to cut interest rates in September. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a 10-bps Continue Reading